Main Strait
By: Main Street Alliance
Cold Open
The world’s most important shipping lane is suddenly the world’s most stressful group chat. Oil tankers are dodging missiles, economists are dusting off their “uh oh” charts, and your local gas station is quietly raising prices like it’s trying not to make eye contact.
This is what a global shock feels like: far away, until it absolutely isn’t.
The Big One: Oil, Iran, and Why Main Street Always Gets the Bill
TL;DR
War in Iran and instability around the Strait of Hormuz are pushing up oil, gas, and diesel prices, and that means small businesses and their customers are both getting squeezed at the same time.
The Gist
Oil prices spiked above $110 before pulling back, but remain volatile
Gas prices are up ~20% since the conflict began
Diesel (key for shipping and trucking) is up ~28%
The Strait of Hormuz carries ~20% of global oil supply, disruption = global ripple effects
Shipping costs are rising quickly (fuel = up to 50–60% of costs)
Higher fuel costs are pushing up prices across goods, especially food and essentials
Inflation could rise back toward ~3% or higher if energy prices stick
Consumers are starting to cut back on discretionary spending
Our Take
This is the classic Main Street squeeze: costs go up while customer demand gets shakier.
A restaurant pays more for deliveries and ingredients. A retailer pays more for freight. A contractor pays more for fuel and materials. A childcare provider, salon, or neighborhood shop may not buy oil directly, but they still get hit through utilities, supply costs, and customers tightening their belts.
Big companies can weather this stuff better. They’ve got more room to absorb cost spikes, more leverage with suppliers, and more cash to ride out volatility. Small businesses usually don’t. They either eat the higher costs and watch margins shrink, or pass them on and risk losing customers who are already stressed.
And if this drags on, it does more than just raise prices. It makes it harder for independent businesses to stay independent. Shocks like this create exactly the kind of pressure that pushes owners toward debt, downsizing, or selling out altogether.
Main Street doesn’t start these crises. But it sure as hell keeps getting handed the receipt.
WTF in the News
Fed Holds Rates Steady, Shrugs Through the Fog
The Fed held rates again and signaled deep uncertainty as oil spikes and labor risks pull policy in opposite directions
For small businesses: borrowing stays expensive, and any rate relief is still TBD
Metric of the Week
$89 billion
That’s the amount that flowed into buyouts of businesses under $100M last year.
Main Street is under pressure from every direction...and capital is paying attention.
Been approached about selling? Thinking through your options?
Reply and tell us what you’re seeing.
Ones to Watch
MSA members from across the country took part in our “Main Street Means Business: A Paid Leave Summit” this week. We had meetings with dozens of offices and held a press roundtable with Rep. Jayapal and Rep. McBride.
After Tariff Whiplash, EarthQuaker Devices CEO Keeps Playing Offense
Julie Robbins, MSA member, talks shop about the impact of the US trade war on her business.
She also had an OP-ED in the Akron Beacon Journal
Companies are closer to tariff refunds, but customers might not see much relief
Beth Benike, MSA members, shares her experience working to secure a refund on her $50,000+ of tariffs paid
Evers vetoes GOP bill, urging lawmakers to ‘get serious’ about childcare crisis
Exactly. Election year gimmicks won’t fix childcare. Sustained support to reduce costs & increase provider compensation is the only way to meaningfully address the childcare crisis.
Trump’s tariffs were ruled illegal. Where’s the refund of $166 billion — plus interest?
MSA members Beth Benike, Barton O’Brien and National Campaigns Director Shawn Phetteplace talk tariffs and refunds
Sign-Off
If this week showed us anything, it’s that small businesses are always downstream from global chaos but rarely upstream in policy decisions.
👉 Sign our tariff refund petition. Congress needs to hear that Main Street should not be the shock absorber for every global crisis.